bet-at-home Open - German Tennis Championships 2011 - Hamburg, Germany

Up to 2009 the German Tennis Championships in Hamburg was a Masters Series event but was downgraded and moved in the schedule to accommodate a new Masters Series tournament in Madrid. Hamburg is the sixth ATP 500 tournament of the season and is held in the heart of Hamburg at the Rothenbaum Tennis Centre, which features a retractable roof stadium seating 13,200 spectators. Up to 2008 the tournament regularly attracted the elite of men's tennis with the likes of Federer and Nadal winning the title four times between them in the last decade. The tournament has lost some of its glamour in recent years though with the world's top four players bypassing the event and this year's renewal has only managed to attract one top 10 player, which is disappointing for a tournament with such a rich history.
The top 16 ranked players are seeded and receive a first round bye. This gives them an advantage over qualifiers, wild cards and un-seeded players as they have to play one match less to reach the final. Looking back at results over the last decade and the tournament has not been particularly kind to the top two seeds who have managed to reach the final on only three occasions in 2004, 2007 and 2008. Two of these three finals were contested by the Federer and Nadal in 2007 and 2008 and Federer won the title in 2004 and 2007 with Nadal winning his only title in 2008. Eight of the last ten winners have been seeded and a seeded player has reached the final every year since 2000. Portas was the only qualifier to win the title in 2001 and Golubev was the only un-seeded player to win the title in 2010.
Defending champion Andrey Golubev has an almost impossible chance of defending his only ATP title this year as he has a tough draw to contend and is out of form. He has a tough opener against German Philip Kohlschreiber who he lost to at Monte Carlo on clay earlier this year in a close 3 set match. His overall form does not inspire confidence either losing his last 10 matches and 36 of his last 50 overall. If he did manage to reach the second round he would still have to beat the likes of Montanes and maybe Almagro, Mayer and Tipsarevic, who are all seeded players in much better form. He did beat two seeds on route to the title last year but his form was much better then and there was no pressure or expectation. He has the added pressure of being defending champion as well as defending his ranking this time around and if he fails to defend the title he will drop outside the top 100.
The top two seeds this year Gael Monfils seeded one and Jurgen Melzer seeded two would be contenders at their best but their form at this level on clay has been far from impressive this year. Both were seeded one and two at Stuttgart and received byes to the second round but they both lost their first matches against proven clay courters who did have the advantage of a first round match under their belts.
This will be Monfils second appearance at Hamburg and he lost his only other match here in the first round back in 2006. Monfils is the favourite to win the title this year and does have the talent to mount a serious challenge, but one ATP clay court title in his career is a disappointing return for a player of his ability. He has a tough draw to contend as well with the likes of Simon, Dolgopolov, Youhzny and Chela all potentially lying in wait in his half of the draw and will need to be at his best if he is going to reach the final this week.
2010 finalist Jurgen Melzer has the potential to win a title of this nature but his form compared to this time last year is nowhere near as good and he looks like a player low on confidence at present. He lost his only match at Stuttgart last week against Giraldo in straight sets and has a tough draw to contend this week with a host of proven clay courters like Almagro, Verdasco, Montanes, Mayer, Ferrero, Andujar and Fognini all potentially lying in wait. He will need to produce his best form over 5 matches to reach the final again this year and at present that looks beyond his capabilities.
In terms of finding players who are capable of winning the title this year one of the seeded players looks to have the best chance based on the statistics of the last decade. We need to look for players who have proven form on the surface, recent surface form or positive surface form in 2011 and players who have won or challenged for clay court titles throughout their careers.
In the top half of the draw veteran Juan Ignacio Chela who is seeded seven has all the attributes and credentials to challenge for the title this week. He has won six clay court titles in his career between 2000 and 2010 as well as reaching four finals. He won two clay court titles in 2010 at Bucharest and Houston and reached the final at Buenos Aires this February. He has excellent recent form winning 80% of his last ten matches and an even better record on clay winning 90% of his last 10 matches. He helped Argentina reach the final of the Team World Cup in Dusseldorf recently where he won all four of his matches in straight sets and reached the quarter finals at the French open back in May. He has a good record against some of the players who look to be his main challengers this week and the only player he has a losing record against is Monfils, who has beaten him both times they have met including once on clay, but this did came back in 2007. Chela looks to have a strong chance of reaching the semi-finals at least as the seeded players in his quarter of the draw like Cilic, Garcia-Lopez and Youzhny have not been in the best form on clay this year and Youzhny and Garcia-Lopez have a losing record against him while he has never played Cilic. Cilic has the best form of the three on clay this year reaching the third round at Monte Carlo and quarter finals at Munich and Rome. All of his losses came against higher ranked players with better surface form and ratings and as Chela is ranked higher and has superior surface form and ratings he should be too good for Cilic if they meet this week.
The opposite half of the draw contains a host of talented clay court specialists with positive match and surface ratings and good recent surface form.
Third seed Nicolas Almagro has these attributes in abundance and has won all of his ten ATP titles on clay, including three ATP 250 titles this year at Nice, Buenos Aires and Costa Do Suaipe and a final appearance at Acapulco which is an ATP 500 tournament. His best results at Hamburg are two quarter final appearances in 2009 and 2007 but he has posted some surprise losses in recent years, most notably losing in the first round last year to Istomin. These losses did come after a very busy European clay court schedule though and after winning the title at Bastad the week before Hamburg last year, so his first round loss last year can be excused as it is not uncommon for a players motivation to be low the week after winning a title. He reached the semi-finals at Bastad last week where he lost to Ferrer in straight sets where he did not have to play any though matches so should be fresher this time round. If he can produce his best form he will be very difficult to beat this week but will still have his work cut out to as there are a number of established clay courters in his half of the draw who have beaten him on the surface in the past.
Almagro has a losing record against seeded players like Verdasco, Melzer and Montanes who he is drawn to potentially meet this week. All three have questions marks regarding there form this year though and have been far from consistent. Verdasco is a former top 10 player and has seen his ranking plummet this year. He has failed to reach a final this year and has not played since Wimbledon so will no doubt be rusty. Melzers is another former top 10 player whose raning has plummeted this year and it would be a surprise if he reached the latter stages based on his form this year. Albert Montanes is a tough competitor and a multiple tournament winner on clay. His surface form has been disappointing this year though and he has failed to reach the final of any of the lower grade tournaments he has entered. He is drawn to meet Almagro in the third round and has beaten his compatriot five of the six times they have met, including four times on clay, but there last match on the surface came back in 2009 at Monte Carlo. On current surface form Almagro looks to have the edge but given the head to head record and both players inconsistent form over the last few months it would no doubt be a close match and a difficult result to call.
Sixth seed Florian Mayer reached the semi-finals at Hamburg last year and has the motivation to perform well again this year as he has ranking points to defend and home crowd support. He was in great from leading up to the French Open reaching the final at Munich and quarter finals at Rome but his form has tailed off since the French Open and he has lost his last three matches in a row including a first round defeat at Stuttgart last week to a qualifier in straight sets. He has a losing record against Almagro and Montanes with all his losses against them coming on clay but he did beat them both in their only matches this year, albeit on hard courts. He has reached three clay court finals to date in his career all at ATP 250 level but it is a concern he is yet to win a title especially as he has now reached a career high ranking of twenty.
Juan Carlos Ferrero who won the title at Stuttgart last week and Pablo Andujar who he met in the final are both proven clay courters who are capable of challenging for the title this week. It is notoriously difficult to win back to back titles though and as Ferrero is a veteran now and it would be a major achievement for him to win six matches back to back this week. Stuttgart was Andujars second final this year on clay after he won the title at Casablanca back in April. He has the form and ability to do well but will find his task a lot more difficult than last week given the strength in depth. It's hard to imagine him winning six matches back to back this week having just played five matches in a row at Stuttgart but winning can breed confidence and given the form of some the players he is drawn to meet this week it would not be a huge surprise if he played well again.

About the Author

Centaur Academy is part of Centaur, the market-leading investment managers in sports intelligence.
Centaur are one of the most dynamic performers of the last decade and their track record of exceptional, tax-free, returns has made it increasingly popular as a complementary investment channel. The Academy delivers training, mentoring and analysis services to sports traders enabling them to benefit from the nine years of experience and consistent success of Centaur's own trading team
CentaurBlogS

Author (martingarc7482). Submitted on Wed, 20 Jul 2011 Time: 11:31 AM

Rating: Not yet rated

Comments

No comments posted.